The bull market appears to have found its footing again. For stock pickers, the past four weeks have marked a shift—from a desert of limited opportunity to a garden of emerging leadership.
Many investors had begun to question the durability of this cycle amid a constant stream of unsettling headlines. But volatility is not a flaw in markets—it’s a defining feature. The “wall of worry” has always been present, and history suggests it always will be. The challenge isn’t eliminating uncertainty—it’s learning to separate noise from signal and follow the weight of the evidence.
And right now, the evidence has been compelling.
- The S&P 500 has gained more than 3% for three consecutive weeks—only the third time this has occurred, and the first time each week exceeded the last.
- The index surged 9.8% over a 10-day period, placing this move among the top 20 short-term rallies since 1950.
- The NASDAQ recorded its fastest shift from oversold to overbought conditions in over 40 years—a historic momentum reversal.
- State Street’s S&P 500 Technology ETF advanced for 15 consecutive days, its longest streak since inception in 1998.
Taken together, these are not isolated data points—they are signals of broad-based, risk-on behavior reasserting itself beneath the surface.
It’s easy to get caught up in reasons why the market shouldn’t be rallying—oil price volatility, AI enthusiasm, geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns. But markets are forward-looking mechanisms, and when price action diverges from prevailing narratives, it often pays to trust what the market is doing over what we think it should be doing.
Strength, in markets, tends to beget more strength. And historically, bursts like the one we’ve just experienced have not marked exhaustion—but rather the early stages of continued upside.
Data courtesy of Ryan Detrick, Carson Group.
- Following similar 10-day rallies, the S&P 500 has delivered higher returns 12 months later 84% of the time, with an average gain of 18%.
- The few exceptions occurred during the unwinding of the early 2000s tech bubble—an important, but very specific, historical context.
The takeaway is not that risk has disappeared—but that the balance of evidence has shifted. Markets are rewarding participation, breadth is improving, and leadership is expanding. In environments like this, the cost of overthinking can be just as damaging as the risk of being wrong. Our approach remains disciplined but opportunistic: leaning into strength where it is emerging, while remaining selective and risk-aware. If this recent momentum follows historical precedent, we may be in the early innings of a more constructive phase—one where staying engaged, rather than waiting for perfect clarity, proves to be the more rewarding path.
As always, our focus remains on translating market signals into thoughtful portfolio decisions. If you’d like to better understand how we’re navigating this environment or explore how your portfolio is positioned, we welcome the opportunity to connect.
The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.